The role of policy in creating opportunities for alternative futures in heat decarbonization

Panel: 2. Policy innovations to ensure, scale and sustain action

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Katherine Lovell, United Kingdom
Timothy Foxon, University of Sussex, United Kingdom

Abstract

Policy action to stimulate the evolution of energy systems towards net zero, including energy efficiency improvements, requires policy-makers to pay attention to the dynamics of energy transitions in socio-technical systems. This paper reports on work examining potential pathways, branching points [1] and connections for heat decarbonization in the UK. This is part of the Operationalizing Socio-Technical Energy Transitions (O-STET) research project, analysing transition pathways as interactions between techno-economic, social-technical and political factors, focusing on understanding key decision points.

The paper draws on analysis of key policy documents, interviews with diverse actors across the sector and workshops with key policy actors to investigate structuring of policy decisions.

We examine socio-technical developments in four potential pathways currently being discussed in relation to decarbonisation of UK systems for providing space and water heating in buildings: hydrogen through gas networks, local heat networks, electrification of heat provision, and demand reduction and energy efficiency measures.

The analysis shows that these areas of development feature different actors, priorities and decision-making processes making them best characterised as separate pathways for decarbonisation. Nevertheless, in practice, combinations of these pathways are likely to be needed, depending on social and geographical contexts.

The paper examines development, competition and co-ordination between these 4 socio-technical pathways, focusing on connection points between pathways and how these might lead to branching of pathways. The analysis identifies eleven connection points and the motivation for and potential of two connection points, hybrid heat pumps and place-based local planning, are examined in more detail.

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