How far can building energy efficiency bring us towards climate neutrality?

Panel: 8. Buildings: technologies and systems beyond energy efficiency

Authors:
Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy; Central European University, Hungary
Benedek Kiss, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary
Souran Chatterjee, Central European University, Hungary

Abstract

The building sector accounts for 36% of the global final energy demand and 39% of energy-related CO2 emissions. In the EU, heating and cooling account for close to half of final energy use. At the same time, a major recent review of the literature demonstrated that net zero energy buildings are possible and economically feasible in virtually each European climate and building type, both for new construction and retrofits, even for historic buildings. Therefore, the potential for building energy efficiency to contribute to Europe’s climate neutrality is significant, while the focus of mitigation efforts in Europe is not on building retrofits.

In this study, we present the results of a bottom-up building energy stock model to demonstrate the frontiers of how much buildings can contribute to a climate neutral world. The 3CSEP HEB model is the most highly resolute building energy model in the world, and this paper will present the first findings of its latest updates, reflecting the wisdom from several initiatives, including the Horizon2020 project “Sentinel”. The model’s novelty is in considering buildings as complex systems rather than sums of individual components/technologies, and this allows to push the frontiers of building efficiency.

Initial results indicate that the total heating and cooling energy of buildings increases by 40% until 2060 if no strict interventions are introduced worldwide. On the other hand, with the most ambitious goals, an over 42% reduction can be achieved by 2060 as compared to 2020. Most importantly, if only current in-act policy interventions are considered (in the "moderate" scenario), this potential cannot be utilized, and an overall 3% increase is expected until 2060, representing a considerable amount of emissions locked in for decades, jeopardising the achievement of mid-century climate neutrality goals.

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