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Effective energy saving policy requires causal evidence

Panel: 4. Monitoring and evaluation for a wise, just and inclusive transition

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Kees Vringer, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands
Daan van Soest, Tilburg University, The Netherlands
Mirthe Boomsma, Tilburg University, The Netherlands

Abstract

Residential energy use is the source of 15–20 % of CO2-emissions in the Netherlands. Reaching the Dutch and European climate goals is impossible without a substantial decrease in household energy consumption. Previous research documented that feedback on one’s household’s energy use, based on smart meter data, can induce energy savings. However, effective energy savings due to the wide enrolment of the smart meter were in the Netherlands much smaller than expected: about 0.9 % for only natural gas (the main source of residential heating in the Netherlands) and no savings for electricity, compared to a predicted 3.5 % reduction for both. To close this gap of about 2.7 % savings, the Dutch government and energy companies decided to improve the already widely used Home Energy Reports (HERs), a form of feedback, delivered bimonthly via mail or email. Unfortunately, the revised monthly HER did not lead to higher energy savings, as proven by a large Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT). To illustrate the importance of methods to get robust insights into energy saving effects like RCTs for evidence based policy making, we present in this paper impact estimates of three different feedback mechanisms – an app, email, and an In Home Display (IHD). Impacts were measured using RCTs, implemented in the Netherlands. Our results confirm earlier findings that feedback is effective if it is real time and continuously visible. For a simple IHD applied in the Netherlands we found savings of more than 2 % for electricity and nearly 7 % for natural gas. Our research also illustrates that impact estimates from observational studies and field-experimental evidence are sensitive to the country-specific environment, as impacts measured abroad can differ substantially from those that are materialized in the Netherlands. The use of causal ex-ante impact analyses, like RCTs, implemented in the country context and among the target population, is indispensable for evidence based policy making.

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Download this paper as pdf: 4-015-22_Vringer.pdf