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The role of energy demand reduction in achieving net-zero in the UK: Transport and mobility

Panel: 6. Energy-efficient and low-carbon mobility for all

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Christian Brand, CREDS, University of Oxford - Environmental Change Institute, United Kingdom
Jillian Anable, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
Greg Marsden, University of Leeds, United Kingdom

Abstract

Decarbonising the transport sector is arguably the most challenging given ever increasing demand for mobility, heavy fossil fuel use, reliance on carbon-intensive infrastructure, and deeply embedded car-dependent lifestyles. Aviation, shipping and heavy goods transport are hard to decarbonise because realistic zero carbon technologies are limited for longer distances. This paper investigates the contribution energy demand reduction in the transport sector could make to climate mitigation efforts. Here we use a bottom-up modelling framework that comprehensively estimates the potential for mobility-related energy demand reduction at a country level. Replicable for other countries, our framework is applied to the case of the UK where we find that reductions in mobility energy demand of up to 61 % by 2050 compared with baseline levels are possible without compromising on citizens’ quality of life. This translates to total lifecycle carbon emissions reductions of up to 72 % by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, with about half of the reduction coming from mode shifting and avoiding travel and moving goods. The other half comes from vehicle energy efficiency and electrification as well as downsizing of the vehicle fleets. Our findings show that energy demand reduction in the transport sector can make it easier to meet sectoral carbon budgets and reduce reliance on more drastic car use restrictions further down the line. There are big potential co-benefits from reducing energy demand as we avoid unnecessary travel, become more multi-modal and electrify a smaller vehicle fleet. Active travel and less air pollution from burning fossil fuel will all improve health. Reducing energy demand may also lower household travel bills, reduce business costs, improve energy security, and transform the job market away from the incumbent fossil fuel economy.

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Download this paper as pdf: 6-307-22_Brand.pdf