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Beyond basic material production: The feasibility of CO2-neutral process heat generation in Germany's industry

Panel: 9. Deep decarbonisation of industry

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Matthias Rehfeldt, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Germany
Tobias Fleiter, Fraunhofer ISI, Germany
Simon Hirzel, Fraunhofer ISI, Germany
Lisa Neusel, Fraunhofer ISI, Germany
Christian Schwotzer, RWTH Aachen, IOB, Germany

Abstract

Deep decarbonisation of the European industry by 2050 requires action in all stages of manufacturing. Many publications focus on a few selected highly energy intensive basic materials such as high value chemicals, steel or primary aluminum. However, around half of the energy consumption for industrial process heating in the EU27 and the majority of installations and companies is outside these main processes.

Here, we conduct a broad analysis of the opportunities to switch to CO2-neutral process heating for 34 applications across all energy-intensive subsectors but focusing processes so far less-investigated. In total these processes account for a third of industrial process heat use in Germany. We assess the technical maturity, energy efficiency and economics of CO2-neutral process heat generation and compare it to the fossil-based status-quo. We create a set of techno-economic data of conventional and new technologies and model their competition and resulting diffusion under transformative economic conditions. The data set describes Germany but the concept and insights can be relevant for the entire EU27.

We find that some of these often overlooked applications have access to the necessary technologies which, with medium- to high-ambition economic measures, can be economically competitive. In particular, about 55 % (78 TWh) of the investigated energy demand, primarily consisting of steam generation and glass production, can decarbonize by 2040 or are close to it – given the ambitious measures applied in this analysis. Another 2 % (2 TWh) in highly specialized applications (hardening, carburizing, heat treatment of copper) lack economically attractive options in 2040. About 43 % (60 TWh) have economically attractive options available, but are unable to implement them fast enough to reach decarbonisation by 2040 or 2050. This group, challenged by long lifetimes of installations, mainly consists of steel processing and clinker production. For them, early price signals can support the transition. We conclude though, that some applications might require regulatory law, as even strong price signals do not sufficiently incentivize decarbonisation.

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