Technology and material efficiency scenarios for a net zero UK steel sector

Panel: 2. Sustainable production towards a circular economy

Authors:
Alice Garvey, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
Jonathan Norman, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
John Barrett, University of Leeds, United Kingdom

Abstract

With the UK’s legislation of a 2050 net zero emissions target, there is urgent need for radical industrial decarbonisation. The steel sector represented 15% of UK industrial emissions in 2017 and is therefore a critical target for mitigation. Mainstream scenario analyses variously assume use of unproven CCS or reductions to steel demand in order to reach a 1.5°C compatible budget by 2050. Our analysis considered whether technology options excluding CCS can achieve a scale of mitigation in the sector in line with a cumulative budget aligned to net zero, and what level of material efficiency would be required to close remaining mitigation gaps. We modelled four key technology scenarios including retrofit, replacement to best practice, fuel shifts to greater EAF production, and implementation of breakthrough technologies, under different assumed ambition levels. We found that the most effective interventions were through established technologies, such as retrofit, replacement and EAF production, but implemented at a faster rate than previously observed.

Given the commercialisation constraints of breakthrough technologies, structural shifts such as material efficiency and EAF production were considered highly important. However, structural changes are necessarily more complex to influence via policy, and there is little precedent for structural change by design in the UK. Our results show that only complementary scenarios combining material efficiency and technology options would achieve a level of mitigation in line with net zero in the UK.

We conclude that it is possible to achieve net zero emissions in the UK steel sector without use of CCS, but that this would require greater and earlier levels of material efficiency, and is highly contingent upon future domestic and international demand for steel.

Watch presentation