Estimating Energy Savings for a Commercial Market Transformation Initiative

Panel: Market Transformation: Taking Efficiency Mainstream

Authors:
Cathy Chappell, Heschong Mahone Group, Inc.
David Cohan, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance

Abstract

This paper describes a unique methodology for estimating energy savings associated with the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance's (NEEA) BetterBricks Initiative, a market transformation approach to achieving long term energy savings in the Northwest. The BetterBricks Initiative is not a traditional, utility-style energy efficiency program, and it is not amenable to a typical impact evaluation approach. Accordingly, and as described further in this paper, the BetterBricks Initiative needs an insightful and innovative approach to estimating energy savings. The paper describes the overall methodological framework, the protocol for establishing energy savings estimates, and the challenges with estimating market transformation energy savings.

BetterBricks seeks to influence the business practices of those who design and operate commercial buildings with the long-term goal of delivering high performance (energy efficient) buildings to the market, increasing market demand for these buildings and achieving larger and more cost-effective long-term energy savings than would be possible through resourceacquisition programs.

While planning estimates were developed as part of the BetterBricks Board-approval process, this project represents the first attempt to use actual Initiative data as the source for savings estimates that are directly linked to Initiative activities. The ultimate goal of this project is to develop "per unit" energy savings impacts from all BetterBricks activity that can be extrapolated to the entire commercial market. NEEA views this as a long-term approach that will take several years to be fully functional. The results and lessons learned in the early stages of the process are presented at the end of the paper.

The fundamental challenge is to capture energy savings from all buildings affected by BetterBricks when the initiative only directly touches a small percentage of those buildings. In creating the conceptual framework, we defined three different levels of BetterBricks influence: Direct Involvement, Direct Influence and Indirect Influence. Direct Involvement refers to projects that have received direct technical assistance. Indirect influence refers to those buildings where designers, operators or building owners were influenced by the program but did not receive direct technical assistance. Indirect influence refers to the spillover of BetterBricks activity into the rest of the commercial building construction and operation market. The Protocol contains separate methodologies for estimating levels of savings for each type of influence.