Cars and fuels of tomorrow: strategic choices and policy needs

Panel: Panel 3: Mobility and Transport

Authors:
Max Åhman, Lund Institute of Technology at Lund University
Lars Nilsson, Lund Institute of Technology at Lund University
Bengt Johansson, Lund Institute of Technology at Lund University

Abstract

Light duty vehicles, i.e., passenger cars and light trucks, account for approximately half of global transportation energy demand and thus a major share of carbon dioxide and other emissions from the transport sector. Energy use in the transport sector is expected to grow in the future, especially in developing countries. Cars with alternative powertrains to internal combustion engines (notably battery, hybrid and fuel cell powertrains), in combination with potentially low carbon electricity or alternative fuels (notably hydrogen and methanol), can reduce energy demand by at least 50%, and carbon dioxide and regulated emissions much further. The article presents a comparative assessment of promising future fuel/vehicle combinations. The study indicates that there are several promising technologies but no obvious winner. However, the electric drivetrain is a common denominator in the most promising alternative powertrains but continued cost reductions are important for widespread deployment in future vehicles. It appears that a flexible transition with a gradual phase-in of new vehicle technologies and alternative fuels is technically possible and, it seems, economically within reach. A shift from current supply push policies, e.g. research and development funding, towards more demand pull and market creating policies such as feebates, subsidies, certification e.t.a., are needed to overcome initial barriers for the alternative technology.