Decoupling the link between economic growth, transport growth and transport energy consumption in Europe

Panel: Panel 3. Land use, transportation and mobility

Authors:
Dominic Stead, Delft University of Technology
David Banister, University College London

Abstract

In the past, it has always been assumed that there is a close relationship between the growth in freight and passenger transport, transport energy consumption and economic growth, at least as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This raises questions about the underlying rationale for this statistical relationship (if it exists) and, more importantly for sustainable development, whether the relationship will (or should) continue into the future.

The strong premise in this paper is that decoupling economic growth from transport growth is a necessary condition for sustainable development – we need to encourage economic growth (in the widest sense), but with less transport (at least in terms of resource use and environmental impacts). This requirement has now been recognised in a series of policy documents. In the UK, for example, the Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment have examined the issue of transport intensity, the prospects for future improvements and the potential for decoupling transport volumes and economic activity (SACTRA, 1999). At the European level, the 2001 White Paper on Transport states that breaking the link between economic growth and transport growth is central in its proposals (CEC, 2001a), and the EU’s sustainable development strategy identifies decoupling transport growth from the growth in Gross Domestic Product as one of its main objectives (CEC, 2001b).

We begin by examining transport and economic trends in Europe and looking at EU policy statements on decoupling. We then discuss the nature of travel and how decoupling can usefully be measured through volumes, distance and efficiency. Possible approaches and strategies for decoupling are then presented, together with a discussion of how these measures might help to decouple transport growth and economic growth. We conclude that, whilst there are a number of strategies which are likely to help to decouple transport growth and economic growth, there are also a number of factors which are hindering the decoupling process. Consequently, decoupling transport growth and economic growth is likely to be a difficult goal to achieve.