Measuring the invisible: quantifying the CO2 emission reductions from transport solutions in Hanoi, Vietnam

Panel: Panel 6. Energy efficiency in transport and mobility

Authors:
Le Anh Tuan, Department of Internal Combustion Engines Institute of Transportation Engineering, Hanoi University of Technology, Vietnam
Lee Schipper, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University, USA
Hans Orn, CONTRANS AB, Sweden
Wei-Shiuen Ng, Consultant, Singapore

Abstract

Working with local experts, the authors developed a transport emissions model for Hanoi, Vietnam, after collecting transport activity data, developing emissions factors, and assigning emissions values to past, present and future levels of passenger transport activity scenarios. A set of two scenarios were used to illustrate emissions impacts of two alternative transport policies previously outlined in the Hanoi Integrated Development and Environment Program (HAIDEP; ALMEC 2007) Master Plan. One policy emphasized improving public transport, while the other is a business-as-usual scenario with a higher automobile growth. These mutually exclusive policies were thought to represent the most probable future scenarios for the city's transport system. This study assumed changes in the demand and supply of transport services, as well as policies for investment and vehicle emission standards that have been deemed reasonable by various experts. If the government promotes public transport to a higher degree and mandates stricter fuel quality and vehicle emission standards, criteria pollutant emissions may be stabilized in 2020 at 2005 levels, while still allowing the same level of mobility. CO ₂ emissions from passenger transport will increase as shown in all scenarios, but less so if vehicles are less fuel intensive and the share of public transport is higher. Nevertheless, the sooner emissions mitigation measures are implemented, the lower future emissions will be. And the dominance of the two-wheeler as the main form of transport invites speculation whether this vehicle might be key to sustainable transportation in dense cities.