Integrated assessment modelling for building sectors – a technical, economic and ecological analysis for Germany and the EU until 2050

Panel: 5B. Cutting the energy use of buildings: Policy and programmes

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Kjell Bettgenhäuser, Ecofys, a Navigant Company, Germany
Andoni Hidalgo, EURIMA, Belgium

Abstract

Based on an integrated assessment model for energy, greenhouse gases and economic indicators two scenarios for a long-term retrofit schedule in the German building sector are analysed: A shallow but fast renovation path is compared to a deep retrofit path with lower retrofit rates. The concepts of partial renovations and a holistic approach are analysed.

Hereby not only energy demand for heating and hot water is taken into account, but also cooling energy demand and auxiliary energy. The assessment is done using the newly developed Built-Environment-Analysis Model II (BEAM²) with monthly balances, which has been subject to the author's PhD. This paper summarizes the key figures of the thesis.

Based on a detailed building stock data a highly disaggregated and multi-parameter dataset is developed, that consists of the dimensions geographical area, reference building, age group, retrofit level, heating system (incl. ventilation + solar), hot water system (incl. solar) and cooling system. A calculation algorithm for heating, hot water, cooling and auxiliary energy demand is based on that dataset and calculates the energy demand, final energy, primary energy, greenhouse gas emissions, investment costs in energy efficiency and renewable energy measures, energy costs and total yearly costs. Furthermore the embodied primary energy demand and embodied greenhouse gas emissions for energy related components in retrofits and new builds are taken into account from a life cycle perspective. The analysis is done for the existing building stock and new buildings. It takes the development towards nZEB (new builds) and cost optimality issues for both new builds and retrofits into account.

The software works in a highly flexible Oracle-database environment and can be tailored to any specific building stock and research question. The development towards hourly load curves for heating/cooling demand and final energy as well as an interface to a power sector model is under development.