Energy consumption of household appliances and electronics by 2030: a modelling and forecasting exercise applied to France

Panel: 7. Appliances, product policy and the ICT supply chain

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Edouard Toulouse, France
Therese Kreitz, ADEME, France
Colombe Peyrusse, Energies Demain, France
Lucie Brice, CREDOC, France

Abstract

As part of a major forward-looking analysis into 2030 and 2050, the French Energy Agency (ADEME) has commissioned several studies on expected trends in various areas of energy use. One of them has investigated the consumption of home appliances by 2030.

The study is based on predictions about socio-economic, behavioural, regulatory, and technological changes over the next 15 years, that have then been processed into a year-by-year stock modelling. The assumptions use a mix of past trend continuation and educated guesses derived from the literature and existing forecasting studies in different fields. In areas where prediction is particularly challenging (e.g. home ICT equipment), a set of contrasted sub-scenarios has been proposed.

As a result, the study provides detailed sheets specifying and justifying the starting point and evolution for the main aspects, energy use per household and total weight for the 25 studied products. The list includes fridges, freezers, washing machines, driers, displays, internet gateways, ovens, etc. Quantified conclusions can be drawn on how some categories are expected to dramatically shrink (e.g. cold appliances) while other may rise significantly (e.g. building automation equipment). The final study output – delivered in the form of an open model that can be rerun with additional scenarios – can be useful to identify priorities for policy intervention and prepare decision-making in the coming 15 years.

The study also casts new light on the relevance of 2020/2030 energy efficiency goals in EU Member States, and the importance of pursuing EU Ecodesign and Energy Labelling policies as well as further addressing user behaviour issues.